ABSTRACT
Background: The efficacy of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) as passive immunotherapy in hospitalized COVID-19 patients remains uncertain. The transfusion of a large volume of high titre CCP in recently hospitalized patients may be beneficial. Aims: To evaluate the ability CCP transfusion to improve early outcome in patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods: The CORIPLASM study was a multicentric, open-label, Bayesian randomized, adaptive, phase 2/3 clinical trial, nested within the CORIMUNO-19 cohort, to test a superiority hypothesis. Patients 18 years or older hospitalized with COVID-19 in 14 French centers, requiring at least 3 L/min of oxygen but without mechanic ventilation assistance and a WHO Clinical progression scale [CPS, 1 to 10] of 4 or 5 were enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a web-based system, according to a randomization list stratified on center, to receive usual care plus 4 units of CCP (2 units/day over 2 days) (CCP group) or usual care alone (usual care group) on day 1 and 2 post-enrollment. Primary outcomes were the proportion of patients withWHO CPS greater than 5 on the 10-point scale on day 4 and survival without ventilation or additional immunomodulatory treatment by day 14. Results: One hundred and twenty patients were recruited from April 16th 2020 and April 21th 2021 and randomly assigned to the CCP group (n = 60) and to the usual care group (n = 60) and followed up for 28 days. Immunosuppressed patients comprised 43% (26/60) and 50% (30/60) of patients in the CCP and usual care groups, respectively. Median time from symptoms onset to randomization (days) was 7.0 [interquartile range (IQR): 5.0-9.0] in the CCP group and 7.0 [IQR: 4.0- 8.5] in the usual care group. Thirteen (22%) patients in the CCP group had a WHO CPS greater than 5 at day 4 versus 8 (13%) in the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.88 [95% CI: 0.71 to 5.24]. By day 14, 19 (31.6%) patients in the CCP and 20 (33.3%) patients in the usual care group had needed ventilation, additional immunomodulatory treatment or had died (adjusted HR: 1.04 [95% CI: 0.55 to 1.97]). The cumulative incidence of death was 3 (5%) in the CCP group and 8 (13%) in the usual care group at day 14 (adjusted HR: 0.40 [95% CI: 0.10 to 1.53]), and 7 (12%) in the CCP group and 12 (20%) in the usual care group at day 28 (adjusted HR: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.20 to 1.32]). Frequency of severe adverse events did not differ significantly between both treatment arms. Subgroup analysis revealed that mortality at day 28 was mostly observed in the immunosuppressed patients (15/56 vs. 4/64) and that CCP was associated with less mortality in these patients (4/26 in the CCP group vs. 11/30 in the usual care group)(HR: 0.36 [95% CI: 0.14-0.97]). Summary/Conclusions: CCP treatment did not improve early outcome in patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia. CCP-associated early respiratory worsening as well as CCP-associated reduced D14 and D28 mortality were observed, while not reaching statistical significance. CCP treatment was associated with reduced D28 mortality in immunosuppressed patients.
ABSTRACT
The aim of the present work is to provide an SEAIR framework which takes a personalized risk prediction score as an additional input. Each individual is categorized depending on his actual status with respect to the disease - moderate or severe symptoms -, and the level of risk predicted - low or high. This idea leads to a 4-fold extension of the ODE model in classical SEAIR. This model offers the possibility for policy-makers to explore differentiated containment strategies, by varying sizes for the low risk segment and varying dates for 'progressive release' of the population, while exploring the discriminative capacity of the risk score, for instance through its AUC. Differential contact rates for low-risk/high-risk compartments are also included in the model. The demo allows to select contact rates and time-depending exit strategies. The hard-coded parameters correspond to the data for the Covid-19 epidemic in France, and the risk refers to the probability of being admitted in ICU upon infection. Some examples of simulations are provided.